Week in Review

With the passing of the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision panel, we now have definitively confirmed that the Federal Reserve intends to keep the rates at a two-decade high, for the sixth straight meeting by a unanimous vote. Jerome Powell had stated during the Q&A that they do not intend to cut rates until they have confidence that inflation will, “sustainably stay lower than the 2% objective.”

Lending partners have responded in kind by a rush in an increase of rates the last three weeks in a row, with expectations tempered about impending rate cuts any time soon.  Markets across the board have experienced a cooling off as a result. Manufacturing has seen a slow trend downwards since the start of the year as reflected in the recent PMI and ISM data releases.

FOMC

Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Decision is unanimous for the 15th straight meeting.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence fell in April for the third straight month and touched a 21-month low due to the high cost of food and gas and fresh worries about the jobs market. The consumer-confidence index sank to 97.0 this month from a revised 103.1 in March, the Conference Board said Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since July 2022.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped sharply to 37.9 in April. That is the lowest level since November 2022.

ISM

The Institute for Supply Management said Friday that its service-sector PMI dropped sharply to 49.4% in April from 51.4% in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 6.47%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 7.22%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.25% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.70%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.24% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 208,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week was 207,000.

What’s Ahead

An extremely light week following the FOMC. The only expectation is weekly jobless claims data and consumer credit reports.